Arkansas entered the heart of duck season with 1.4 million ducks in the state at the end of December, including 498,000 mallards, according to wildlife surveys conducted by the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission.
Two weeks later, nearly one million ducks had left the state.
State wildlife officials attribute the sharp decline to severe drought conditions and unseasonably warm weather, not to regulatory changes or hunting pressure.
“We had 1.4 million ducks in Arkansas on 12/31,” said Doug Schoenrock, director of the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission. “Fast forward to January 1 through January 13, we had 544,000 ducks in the state. That’s a million ducks gone, basically, in a 15-day period.”
Drought Conditions Worsen Habitat
Officials said water conditions were already strained heading into winter. Roughly 90% of Arkansas is currently experiencing extreme or moderate drought, with rainfall deficits ranging from 9 to 12 inches.
The state recorded its third driest November and December since 1893, placing this year among the 10 driest on record.
“These droughts have a significant impact on surface water,” Schoenrock said. “We may not have water available in a ditch to pump, or our pump levels are at such where we can’t reach the water level.”
He emphasized that Arkansas does not pump groundwater for duck habitat, citing impacts on agriculture and municipalities.
One indicator of the broader water shortage: Arkansas rice farmers are expected to qualify for record USDA disaster aid payments due to crop failures this year.
Early Season Surge, Then a Sharp Drop
During late December aerial surveys conducted between December 15 and December 31, biologists recorded twice as many ducks as the same period in 2024, despite having half as much water.
“We were high-fiving,” Schoenrock said. “If it had not been for private lands, I don’t think we would have had enough water to attract as many ducks and hold as many ducks.”
Mallards saw a particularly strong early presence.
“This was more than 344,000 more mallards on 12/31 than we had on 12/31 of 2024,” he said, describing a 300-plus percent increase year over year.
But warm temperatures in early January allowed ducks to move north rather than continue farther south.
“All of us remember what happened in the first 15 days of January,” Schoenrock said. “We had some pretty warm weather and no rainfall.”
Why Ducks Leave Arkansas
Schoenrock said duck migration is driven by three factors: daylight, weather, and food.
“They don’t come to Arkansas because they just like coming to Arkansas,” he said. “They come because we set a phenomenal table.”
Arkansas provides food and habitat through green tree reservoirs, moist soil units, rice fields, and private land. But when conditions farther north remain tolerable, ducks conserve energy by stopping short.
“They’re opportunistic,” Schoenrock said. “They’ll leave us if they can go further north and reduce the energy requirements.”
Despite the decline, mallards continue to make up about 61% of Arkansas’s current duck population, near the state’s long-term average of 63%.
Harvest Numbers Remain High
State officials said harvest data does not support claims of a collapse in Arkansas duck hunting.
Arkansas has averaged 390,000 to 400,000 mallards harvested annually over the past five seasons — 2.3 times more than any other state, according to Schoenrock.
Total duck harvest has averaged more than 1.1 million birds per season, keeping Arkansas ranked first nationally, followed by California and Louisiana.
Hunters in Arkansas average 18.8 ducks per season.
“We are not in the good old days,” Schoenrock said. “But we’re close to where they have been.”
Dispute Over Flyway Federation Claims
Schoenrock addressed criticism from the Louisiana-based Flyway Federation, which argues that mallards are being held in mid-latitude states due to hunting over standing corn.
“They’re feeling the impact of a 6.6 million mallard migration, not a 10 million mallard migration,” he said.
The group has urged federal action to restrict hunting over standing corn, citing a 1998 revision to the Migratory Bird Treaty Act. Schoenrock said that interpretation is incorrect.
“That act revision had nothing to do with standing corn,” he said. “Standing corn has been legal forever for waterfowl hunting.”
He warned that such debates risk dividing hunters.
“One of the biggest risks… is it creates a divide among the waterfowling community,” Schoenrock said.
Habitat, Not Regulation, Drives Populations
Schoenrock said long-term duck numbers are primarily influenced by habitat conditions in northern breeding grounds, not by state-level hunting rules.
“Habitat in the breeding grounds is absolutely essential for us to have ducks over our decoys,” he said.
Arkansas, he added, continues to invest heavily in habitat, including green tree reservoir restoration projects that will benefit waterfowl for decades.
“Red oak regeneration will create mallard habitat for generations to come,” Schoenrock said.
A Safety Warning After Bayou Meto Fatality
State wildlife officials also highlighted a fatal boating accident at Bayou Meto Wildlife Management Area as a reminder of the risks associated with high-speed travel through flooded timber during duck season.
On December 19, a 33-year-old hunter was killed while returning from a duck hunt when the boat struck a tree, ejecting one occupant and mortally injuring the operator. The boat, a 15-foot edge boat with a 25-horsepower motor, was legal for use in Arkansas.
Based on damage to both the vessel and the tree, officials said the boat was likely traveling at an excessive speed for flooded timber conditions. Toxicology results are still pending, though officials said impairment is not suspected.
“It is a very dangerous situation,” Schoenrock said.
Sen. Missy Irvin said the incident underscores growing safety concerns tied to social media-driven behavior on popular public hunting areas.
“There’s so much on social media and TikTok in particular of these just wild and crazy boat races down this flooded timber in Arkansas, at Bayou Meto and other places,” Irvin said. “It can become an incredibly dangerous situation really, really fast.”
Schoenrock said the agency is working with a nonprofit organization and the victim’s family to help promote boating safety, noting the widow has expressed a desire to use the tragedy to prevent future accidents.
